Green energy transition: Focus on long-term technological drivers

According to many experts, hydrogen is the new, future oil. By 2050, the global market could reach a sales volume of up to $2.5 trillion, according to a calculation by the management consultancy McKinsey. In addition to reducing emissions, the main long-term drivers are the rising global demand for sustainably generated energy and the move towards a circular economy. This trend is being accelerated even further by politicians who have announced a green economic stimulus program, while at the same time efforts are being stepped up under the Paris Agreement.

In 2020, a distinct revaluation of hydrogen shares led to a significant rise in their price. Since the beginning of the year, the euphoria has cooled down again. Overall, we are only at the beginning of the "green" energy transition and "green" hydrogen is experiencing a strong regulatory push. It is key to sectors of the economy where emissions are otherwise difficult to reduce. In addition, low-cost green electricity and increasing economies of scale in industry are having a degressive effect on costs. On the other hand, the industry will still be heavily dependent on subsidies in the first half of this decade, which generally exhibit a not inconsiderable degree of volatility.

Looking at the subsectors, demand for solar and onshore wind turbines continues to grow with technological progress in both existing and new markets, and is increasing competition. This is the real driver for the electrification of the global economy, which is also the key to a zero-emissions future. Today, 80% of energy is still generated from fossil sources. In 2050, by contrast, around 80% of energy will come from electricity generated from renewable sources.

Energy efficiency also remains important. This manifest itself especially in the three sectors of transportation, industry and construction. The construction sector is currently the most attractive, as it is strongly supported by its favorable valuation. In addition, growth prospects are improving in view of the infrastructure packages expected from the EU and the USA to stimulate the post-pandemic economy while reducing emissions. The construction and operation of buildings - responsible for 30 to 40% of global final energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions - will play a crucial role.