Do we have an AI bubble? Expert panel at DNB discusses technology, market, and future.
Artificial intelligence has rapidly become a central part of both everyday life and the financial market. But are we witnessing a new technology bubble, or is the AI revolution just getting started? This is a question many of our clients are concerned about.
To address this question, we organized an expert panel consisting of portfolio managers Erling Thune and Sverre Bergland from the DNB Technology Fund, Marius Brun Haugen from Wealth Management Investment Office, and Torje Gundersen, head of Global Tactical Allocation.
Technological advancements and investment willingness
The panel agreed that AI technology has made enormous progress in a short time, and that the areas of application are growing both in small and large ways. Examples from everyday life, such as the use of ChatGPT for translations, illustrate how quickly technology has become a part of daily life. At the same time, the participants point out that there is still great uncertainty about which business models will be profitable and who will ultimately emerge as winners.
The market: Bubble tendencies, but no panic
There is broad agreement that there are bubble tendencies in the AI market, but that we are not near the dotcom bubble of the late 90s. The pricing of the fastest-growing companies is high, but not extreme. Volatility has increased, and there are large fluctuations between different sectors and companies. The semiconductor sector is particularly highlighted as an area with high risk, given the enormous investments and the potential for temporary overcapacity.
Companies in focus: Nvidia, Google, and OpenAI
- Nvidia has been the flagship in the AI rally, with a growth of a whopping 66 percent last quarter. The company provides critical hardware (GPUs) for AI training and use, and the demand has been enormous. At the same time, there is uncertainty about whether Nvidia can maintain its growth, especially if major customers like Meta and Google consider alternatives to Nvidia chips.
- Google has strengthened its position in recent months with the launch of Gemini 3, and several in the panel believe Google has now caught up with OpenAI in certain areas. Google also has a strong position in advertising, which could be decisive when AI services are to be commercialized.
- OpenAI has been at the center of the AI hype since the launch of ChatGPT, but now faces challenges related to funding and business model. The company has large outstanding contracts and is dependent on finding sustainable revenue streams, either through subscriptions, advertising, or new services.
