The pill race and prospects for the healthcare sector in 2026
Obesity has developed into one of the biggest health challenges of our time, and now we are facing the next major breakthrough: the weight loss pill.
Obesity has developed into one of the biggest health challenges of our time, and now we are facing the next major breakthrough: the weight loss pill.
Rune holds a Master of Science in Finance from the Norwegian School of Management (BI).
Benedicte Kilander Bakke is Portfolio Manager for DNB Health Care and DNB Bioteknologi.
After five years in DNB Corporate Banking focusing on financing of international health care companies, Bendikte joined us in 2018 as Portfolio Manager in the Health Care team. With over 20 years previous experience from the industry in different positions in international pharmacutical and smaller biotech companies, she has also been on the board of several both listed and unlisted companies in the sector.
Benedicte is a doctor of dental surgery and holds an MBA from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH), Norway. She is also a certified AFA-analyst from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH).
After completing her medical education in 2013 followed by a residency until 2015, as well as a number of research programs from 2016 to 2019 and a PhD in 2019, Anesa entered the industry in 2020 as an investment analyst at Hadean Venture. In June 2021, she joined DNB Asset Management as an analyst in the global healthcare team.
Anesa has a doctorate in medicine with a specialization in internal medicine, and also holds an Executive MBA from the Norwegian School of Economics NHH.
Obesity has developed into one of the largest health challenges of our time. New medications have already dramatically changed treatment, and now we are faced with the next major breakthrough: an effective weight loss pill. At the same time, the healthcare sector is entering 2026 with brighter prospects than in a long time after several years marked by political and economic uncertainty.
In recent years, medications such as Wegovy and Mounjaro have received significant attention both in the healthcare sector and in the media. These injectable treatments have shown that it is possible to achieve significant and lasting weight loss. Nevertheless, many patients are reluctant to take injections. A pill could therefore lower the threshold for treatment and make the medications available to more people.
Two companies are leading this "pill race": Danish Novo Nordisk and American Eli Lilly.
Novo Nordisk has extensive experience with so-called GLP-1 medications and was early with a pill version for diabetes. However, developing a similar pill for treating obesity has proven challenging. The active ingredient breaks down easily in the stomach, and the pill must be taken in a very specific manner to function optimally. Nevertheless, Novo has chosen to invest heavily in this area. The company does not see the pill as a replacement for injections, but as an important addition, especially for patients who want a simpler form of treatment.
Eli Lilly has taken a completely different approach. Instead of trying to "package" a large and complex molecule into a pill, they have developed orforglipron, a small molecule that can be taken as a regular tablet, without special rules for intake. This could provide significant advantages, both for patients and for production and distribution. At the same time, available study data suggests that Novo Nordisk's pill currently appears to provide somewhat better efficacy and a more favorable side effect profile than orforglipron.
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Who will ultimately win this race is still uncertain. What is certain is that the competition drives rapid innovation, and patients are left as the biggest winners.
While innovation is accelerating, the healthcare sector has been marked by significant political unrest in recent years. After the 2024 presidential election in the USA, uncertainty surrounding drug prices, healthcare reforms, and trade policy has contributed to the sector developing more weakly than the stock market in general.
Now the picture is gradually looking more positive. Changes in the American healthcare system created significant disruptions at first, but have largely stabilized. Trade conflicts and tariff measures have also not affected the healthcare sector as hard as many feared.
An important turning point came in the autumn of 2025, when pharmaceutical giant Pfizer entered into an agreement with American authorities regarding drug pricing. This helped to alleviate fears of more drastic interventions, and several similar agreements have followed. Although political risks still exist, uncertainty has decreased, and companies have gained better predictability.
As we look towards 2026, several factors favor the healthcare sector. The population is aging, more people are living with chronic and lifestyle-related diseases, and the need for new and better treatments is increasing. At the same time, many large pharmaceutical companies are facing patent expirations on important products, which often leads to increased acquisition activity and investment in new technology.
In addition, the healthcare sector has often proven to be more resilient than many other sectors during periods of economic turmoil. The demand for healthcare services and medicines is less affected by economic fluctuations, which may become increasingly important if the global economy becomes turbulent again.
The sum of this is a sector that, after a period of headwinds, enters 2026 with a better balance between risk and opportunities, and with innovation still being the most important driving force.