The China Debacle – Will the US Election Outcome Change Anything?
Tensions between China and the US have increased since the ascendance of Donald Trump to the US presidency. With less than two months left of the 2020 US presidential race, relations between the only global superpowers seem to have reached a nadir.
How have we arrived at the current juncture and what does the outcome of the US election mean for the future relationship between the two great nations?
The strained relationship between the US and China is multifaceted. There is a mutual dependency between the two countries that in ordinary circumstances should preclude rash and counterproductive behavior and promote a certain level-headedness on contentious issues. On a country level, they are both each other’s greatest trading partner. However, both are also vying for influence and power worldwide, and Chinese growth has challenged the supremacy of the US not only on trade, but also militarily and technologically.
It is undeniable that China has reduced the gap between itself and the US in an extremely short period of time. In less than 20 years, China’s GDP has gone from being less than 13% of US’s GDP to becoming almost 70%. The life quality of the average Chinese has improved vastly over these years. Poverty rates have plummeted: according to the World Bank, the percentage of the Chinese population living in extreme poverty has fallen from 40% in 1999 to below 1% in 2018. The country now has the world’s largest group of middle-income earners and is the single most important contributor to world growth.
In the same era, China has also expanded its military might considerably. It now boasts the world’s greatest navy and one of the world’s greatest air defense systems. Its sphere of influence is expanding in other areas as well. China is the predominant trading partner for most of the countries in Asia, the Americas and Africa. It has invested heavily in Latin American and African countries, particularly those with an abundance of natural resources, and with a strong emphasis on infrastructure. This is line with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to connect trade networks and increase trade. Trade linkages have helped other countries, especially the Southeast Asian ones, grow much faster than they otherwise would.
The lack of geopolitical engagement from the US as well as its inwardly focus is compelling more and more of world’s emerging economies to align themselves with the Chinese.
